Happy Brexit (The EU is over.)

To paraphrase John Lennon’s Christmas song, “So this is Brexit, what have you done?”

Well, the electorate of the UK, look what you have done… Happy now?

Still, there’s no point in crying over the spilt milk, we have to look forward. The bridges have been burnt. Signing an on-line petition for another referendum isn’t going to get anywhere.

The future, at least for the next decade looks quite bleak, especially politically and economically as the country and world adjusts. So, what would my best-case scenario be?

(1) Politics

Well, this is a mess. Who would be the least bad option to fill the Prime Minister’s seat?

At the moment I think it would be Boris Johnson, and here’s why…

  • Although he’s a lying, self-serving, populist and calculated politician he’s not a xenophobic Nazi. He also managed to be Mayor of London and not destroy the place. He’s also got enough chart, wit and bluster to counter Nigel Farage. Remember that facts and logic play no part in politics at the moment, only bluster, innuendo and “gut feeling”, however depressing that is.
  • The other potential candidates for the leader of the Conservative party are either terrifying or anonymous. If Theresa May because PM then I can see the UK becoming a restrictive police state before you can say, “due process”. Michael Gove?! Enough said. The rest don’t have enough personality to counter the real evil, Farage.
  • If there were a General Election, even if Labour did manage to get in, Mr. Corbyn would try to counter Farage’s xenophobic rants and rabble rousing using facts, logic and reasoned argument. Farage’s personality cult seems immune to such attacks as facts and logic aren’t things that he relies upon. Admittedly a Labour government could help, but given the commitment to continue the fake austerity and not raise taxes to actually pay for things and the internal in-fighting I’m not sure it would be strong enough to turn around the angry and disenfranchised “working class” part of the electorate who voted to leave.

It’s sad that I’ve come to this conclusion but as far as I can see it’s the only way to avoid a fascist state in the short to medium term.

Of course, a Boris government would risk destroying a great many things, including the NHS. I’m not sure that it can survive now given the forces ranged against it. The current government has already undermined it so greatly.

(2) The divorce.

Again, this is a mess. It’s already been stated by a number of those in the EU Commission and Council of Ministers that they really want to make the terms of the UK’s exit punitive so as to show to any other countries thinking about leaving that it would be suicide. Also remember that there are some states in the EU who would love to punish the UK.

To be honest, I can’t see what the potential outcome of this will be or if saner heads will prevail. I’m not very optimistic. At the very least I foresee the financial centre of The City vacating Britain so as to continue operating in the EU. We’d better refocus on industry and forget the financial sector as a money maker. I don’t see the nuclear power station at Hinkley Point going ahead as that requires French government help.

At best, I envisage a free trade agreement, where there are no tarifs but little more.

And so, it’s quite a depressing outlook. However, we have to work with what we have. *sigh*

(3) The aftermath

Well, it’s not only the UK that’s in trouble. The Pandora’s Box has been opened and however punitive the terms of the UK’s exit are I can envisage other parts of the EU having a tough time not being forced to consider breaking away, especially given the arrogant attitude displayed by some of the EU Commissioners and members of the Council of Ministers in the last day or so. It has seemed to be a case of, “How dare the people disagree with us! We’ll teach them the error of their ways!”

This is going to be tough for everyone.